The only question about the market that matters right now is how deep the correction that was triggered by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will go. Will we see a full retest and a move back to the June lows, or will some support occur before that happens?
All the major indexes are now near key round-number support levels. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 32,000, the S&P 500 at 4,000, the Nasdaq at 12,000 and the Nasdaq 100 at 300.
Here is the S&P 500:
The 4,000 level of the S&P 500 is a psychologically important round number; it is also 50-day moving average support and a place where there were other turns. If it is breached, then it will become overhead resistance and the June lows become a more powerful magnet. If it holds, then it becomes even stronger support and will be harder to break on future dips.
On Tuesday morning, the market is seeing a little bounce action in front of the Consumer Confidence report, which is due out a 10 a.m. ET. It is expected to come in around 98 versus 95.7 last month. This Friday we have monthly jobs data, which will also be a key report.
Whether the key technical levels hold is going to be a function of the reaction to the economic news. The Fed is obviously hawkish and the market needs strong reasons to believe that Powell may pivot to dovishness sooner rather than later. It is going to take a series of positive economic reports before the Fed will back off.
We have key technical levels to watch and we have important catalysts in the form of economic reports. If the 4,000 level of the S&P 500 does not hold on a closing basis, then the talk of a retest is going to gain immediate traction.
This week it was all about the Fed, inflation and jobs -- now it's going to be tough trading ahead.
I've got a play in Citigroup as banks are outperforming the overall market.
Let's shine a light on the evils of easy money and how to invest now that the spigot is turned down.
Here's where investors can probe now.
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